This was one of the our first Long Bets, made in 02002. Over ten years ago now, Esther Dyson predicted that,
“By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as “the world leader in software development” or words to that effect.”
She was challenged by Bill Campbell, who argued,
“As long a there is business opportunity… and I am confident that there will be… the US will provide world leadership in software development.”
He backed up his argument by putting in stakes of $5,000, which Dyson matched.
In reviewing the Bet, we found no such remarks in either publication. American software companies like Google and Facebook remain dominant in the American press. Many countries are contributing more and more to the global IT industry, but none as much as India, according to this graph generated from IMF data.
Winner: Bill Campbell, Challenger
The winnings of this Bet ($10,000 plus half the accrued interest) will go to the Computer History Museum.
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