US Presidential election process largely unchanged in 02012 - Long Bet 291

In 02007, political tensions were running high and the US was beginning to contemplate who would replace the second President Bush. Amid this polarized climate, Jason Galbraith predicted that,

Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.

Unconvinced by Galbraith’s premonitions of anarchy, coups or shadowy pseudo-democracy, Sam Stigler offered a simple rejoinder:

Galbraith’s argument fails to take into account the incredible resilience of the U.S. institutions of government over the years since its inception.

Stakes were set at $500, half from each participant.

Despite great division in the political sphere and unprecedented international crises abroad, the dramatic upheavals within the US imagined by Galbraith failed to materialize. The customary primaries and conventions were held in 02012 as usual:


Winner: Sam Stigler, Challenger

The winnings of this Bet ($500 plus half the accrued interest) will go to Lewis & Clark College.

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