Seminars About Long-term Thinking


A Monthly Seminar Series, Hosted by Stewart Brand.   + About this Series  |  Subscribe to the Podcast


The Long Now Foundation's monthly Seminars were started in 02003 to build a compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking; to help nudge civilization toward our goal of making long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare.

On Tuesday June 18, 02013 • in 4 hours, 38 minutes

Ed Lu

“Anthropocene Astronomy: Thwarting Dangerous Asteroids Begins with Finding Them”

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Are humans smarter than dinosaurs? We haven’t proved it yet.

In the long now, the greatest threat to life on Earth, or (more frequently) to civilization, or (still more frequently) to cities, is asteroid impact. The technology exists to eliminate the threat permanently. It is relatively easy and relatively cheap to do. However to date, government organizations have not made this a priority. That leaves nonprofits and private funding. Considerable efficiency may be gained by going that route.

Ed Lu is CEO and Chairman of the B612 Foundation, which, in partnership with Ball Aerospace is building an asteroid-detection system called Sentinel, aiming for launch in 2018. A three time NASA astronaut, Lu is also the co-inventor of the “gravity tractor” -- one of the several techniques that can be used to nudge threatening asteroids out their collision paths with Earth.

Asteroid threat is an attention-span problem blended with a delayed-gratification problem---exactly the kind of thing that Long Now was set up to help with. Taking the extreme danger of asteroids seriously requires thinking at century and millennium scale. Dealing with the threat requires programs that span decades, because asteroids can only be deflected if they are found and dealt with many years before their potential impact. The reality is that the predictability of orbital mechanics makes cosmic planetary defense completely workable. Sometimes real science is more amazing than science fiction.

On February 15th of this year, civilization got a wake-up call. A 45 meter asteroid, large enough to completely obliterate a major city, missed Earth by only 17,000 miles, and hours later a smaller rock, 17 meters in diameter, exploded in the air over Chelyabinsk, Russia, injuring 1500 people. Interest in B612’s asteroid detection mission spiked accordingly.

7:30pm to 9:00pm PST

Marines' Memorial Theater   San Francisco, California

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Upcoming Seminars

  • Tuesday June 18
  • Ed Lu
  • “Anthropocene Astronomy: Thwarting Dangerous Asteroids Begins with Finding Them”
  • Monday July 29
  • Craig Childs
  • “Apocalyptic Planet: Field Guide to the Everending Earth”

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Previous Seminars

02013 Catalog

  • George Dyson
  • “No Time Is There--- The Digital Universe and Why Things Appear To Be Speeding Up”

02012 Catalog

  • Peter Warshall
  • “Enchanted by the Sun: The CoEvolution of Light, Life, and Color on Earth”
  • Cory Doctorow
  • “The Coming Century of War Against Your Computer”
  • Mark Lynas
  • “The Nine Planetary Boundaries: Finessing the Anthropocene”
  • Jim Richardson
  • “Heirlooms: Saving Humanity's 10,000-year Legacy of Food”

02011 Catalog

  • Geoffrey B. West
  • “Why Cities Keep on Growing, Corporations Always Die, and Life Gets Faster”

02010 Catalog

  • Ed Moses
  • “Clean Fusion Power This Decade”
  • David Eagleman
  • “Six Easy Steps to Avert the Collapse of Civilization”
  • Wade Davis
  • “The Wayfinders: Why Ancient Wisdom Matters in the Modern World”

02009 Catalog

  • Paul Romer
  • “A Theory of History, with an Application”
  • Daniel Everett
  • “Endangered languages, lost knowledge and the future”

02008 Catalog

  • Paul Ehrlich
  • “The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment”
  • Craig Venter
  • “Joining 3.5 Billion Years of Microbial Invention”
  • Paul Saffo
  • “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”

02007 Catalog

  • Alex Wright
  • “Glut: Mastering Information Though the Ages”
  • Brian Fagan
  • “We Are Not the First to Suffer Through Climate Change”
  • Vernor Vinge
  • “What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen?”
  • Philip Tetlock
  • “Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs”

02006 Catalog

  • Philip Rosedale
  • “'Second Life:' What Do We Learn If We Digitize EVERYTHING?”
  • Orville Schell
  • “China Thinks Long-term, But Can It Relearn to Act Long-term?”
  • John Rendon
  • “Long-term Policy to Make the War on Terror Short”
  • Jimmy Wales
  • “Vision: Wikipedia and the Future of Free Culture”
  • Kevin Kelly
  • “The Next 100 Years of Science: Long-term Trends in the Scientific Method.”

02005 Catalog

  • Sam Harris
  • “The View from the End of the World”
  • Clay Shirky
  • “Making Digital Durable: What Time Does to Categories”
  • Robert Fuller
  • “Patient Revolution: Human Rights Past and Future”
  • Roger Kennedy
  • “The Political History of North America from 25,000 BC to 12,000 AD”
  • James Carse
  • “Religious War In Light of the Infinite Game”

02004 Catalog

  • Jill Tarter
  • “The Search for Extra-terrestrial Intelligence: Necessarily a Long-term Strategy”
  • Daniel Janzen
  • “Third World Conservation: It's ALL Gardening”
  • George Dyson
  • “There's Plenty of Room at the Top: Long-term Thinking About Large-scale Computing”

02003 Catalog