Seminars About Long-term Thinking


A Monthly Seminar Series, Hosted by Stewart Brand.   + About this Series  |  Subscribe to the Podcast


The Long Now Foundation's monthly Seminars were started in 02003 to build a compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking; to help nudge civilization toward our goal of making long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare.

Laura Cunningham

“Ten Millennia of California Ecology”

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Tickets will be available at the door.

Ecologically, the past is always present if you know where and how to look. Paleontologist-biologist-artist Laura Cunningham spent 20 years exploring California's archives and relic lands to reconstruct exactly what life used to look like here over the past 10,000 years. Her beautiful images and her insights about long-period ecological change are collected in her new book, A STATE OF CHANGE: Forgotten Landscapes of California.

Like many regions, California is busy restoring portions of the natural environment to previous conditions---native meadows, riparian woodlands, salt marshes, old-growth forests, along with the animals that used to populate them. But there is no static past to restore TO. With Cunningham's guidance we can choose to restore to a particular period: say, before the white invasion; or, during the Medieval Warm Period; or, before the human invasion; or, during the Ice Ages. With her inspiration, we can begin to envisage the ecological changes coming over the next 10,000 years.

7:30pm to 9:00pm PST

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This talk was given at Cowell Theatre in Fort Mason Center in San Francisco, California on Monday October 17, 02011

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Laura Cunningham

Eco-continuity in California

California ecology used to be much more driven by floods and fires, Cunningham said, showing with her paintings how the Great Valley would become a vast inland sea, like a huge vernal pool progressing each year from navigable water to intense flower displays to elk-grazed grassland. Lake Merritt in Oakland was a salt water inlet. On the Albany mudflats grizzly bears would tunnel into a beached humpback whale for food, joined by California condors. Every fall at the Carquinez Strait a million four-foot-long Chinook salmon headed inland to spawn.

Only 300 years ago the whole Bay Area was grasslands, routinely burned by the local Indians. There were oaks in the valleys, redwoods in the Berkeley Hills, and extensive oak savannahs inland. The hills were greener more of the year than now, with fire-freshened grass attracting elk, and native perennial grasses drawing moisture with their deep roots.

Cunningham researched the ancient landscapes using old maps, photos, paintings, scientific reports, sundry local experts, and 30 years of fieldwork. She witnessed the last wild condors feeding on a calf carcass, chasing off a golden eagle. (The condors are now back in the wild, spotted as far north as Mt. Hamilton.) To learn about the behavior and ecological effects of wolves and grizzly bears, she studied them in Yellowstone Park. (The California golden bear was enormous, up to 2,200 pounds.)

Along the Pacific shore there used to be 10-ton Steller's sea cows (extinct in 1768), a giant petrel with an 8-foot wingspan, and a flightless diving goose that ate mussels. Further back, in the Ice Ages before 12,000 years ago, the ocean was lower, and San Francisco Bay was a savannah occupied by huge bison (6 feet at the shoulder), a native full-sized horse similar to the African quagga (Cunningham shows it with quagga-like stripes), Columbian mammoths, and the giant short-faced bear (10 feet tall standing up).

For current Californians Cunningham encourages local restoration of old ecosystems, perhaps learning to live with more flood and fire. With her multi-millennial perspective, she's pretty relaxed about climate change. As much as long-term ecology is about continuity, it is about change.

-- by Stewart Brand
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Upcoming Seminars

  • Wednesday Feb. 22
  • Jim Richardson
  • “Heirlooms: Saving Humanity's 10,000-year Legacy of Food”
  • Tuesday March 6
  • Mark Lynas
  • “The Nine Planetary Boundaries: Finessing the Anthropocene”
  • Monday April 23
  • Charles Mann
  • “Living in the Homogenocene: The First 500 Years”

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Previous Seminars

02012 Catalog

02011 Catalog

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  • “Why Cities Keep on Growing, Corporations Always Die, and Life Gets Faster”

02010 Catalog

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  • David Eagleman
  • “Six Easy Steps to Avert the Collapse of Civilization”
  • Wade Davis
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02009 Catalog

  • Paul Romer
  • “A Theory of History, with an Application”
  • Daniel Everett
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02008 Catalog

  • Paul Ehrlich
  • “The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment”
  • Craig Venter
  • “Joining 3.5 Billion Years of Microbial Invention”
  • Paul Saffo
  • “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”

02007 Catalog

  • Alex Wright
  • “Glut: Mastering Information Though the Ages”
  • Brian Fagan
  • “We Are Not the First to Suffer Through Climate Change”
  • Vernor Vinge
  • “What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen?”
  • Philip Tetlock
  • “Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs”

02006 Catalog

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02005 Catalog

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02004 Catalog

  • Jill Tarter
  • “The Search for Extra-terrestrial Intelligence: Necessarily a Long-term Strategy”
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  • George Dyson
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02003 Catalog